SparkCity prediction model: 3 million EV’s in the Netherlands by 2030


According to the SparkCity prediction model, 88% of all newly sold cars in 2030 will be an electric model. We can expect a total of nearly 3 million electric cars by that year. The Dutch government policy is aiming at 100% new electric cars in 2030.

With a new prediction model, designed by reseachers at the the Eindhoven University (TU/e ), the probability of a lot of scenario’s can be tested regarding the growth of electric driving. It uses a multiplicity of different factors and it can even predict transitions on street or municipal levels. It also can calculate the effects of Smart Charging policies. The model can be used by governments, grid operators and businesses to work out efficient scenario’s together.

The presentation of the new SparkCity model took place last Monday November 13th at a special symposium about the future of EV at ElaadNL in Arnhem. Auke Hoekstra - senior advisor electric mobility at TU/e –presented the model along with his team of researchers to a large and enthusiastic audience. Along with the presenting and explaining the new model, Hoekstra and his team also made a few predictions concerning electric vehicles in the Netherlands for the next years (see the graph below).

The SparkCity model is a research project made possible by ElaadNL, Nationaal Kennisplatform Laadinfrastructuur and TU/e.
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